Sunday, April 9, 2017

Crew Rolling Experiment Results April 9th

Crew Rolling Experiment

People have been complaining about the Random Number Generate of the Crew Roller has been 'fixed', with no BB or DoS crews popping up. So, to check the claims of this I set out doing 4 different roll experiments. With the following rules 
  • No collecting crews until all uranium is spent 
  • Must all be done in one session
  • If the game or computer crashes, restart 
  • Only roll crews using the Advanced Crew option 
One with 170 rolls, one with 226, and one with 391, and the last with 403. I then complied all in a spreadsheet, and made a total one and an average one. 

Here are the links to the 4 trials
Now that we have the basic data, here is the total between them all. 

The average? 

(Although these are the averages from 1447 rolls, some crews were never rolled. I will be doing another 403 rolls every week, so in a month new data will be available to compare.)

Here are the averages that matter 
  • 37% for rolling a Common Crew 
  • 61% for rolling an Uncommon Crew
  • 1.5% for rolling a Rare Crew 
  • .41% for rolling a Legendary Crew 
And for individual crews 
  • .21% for rolling a Bullseye Brigade
  • .138% for rolling Grease Monkeys
  • 3.8% for Midnight Marauders 
  • 4.98% for Gearheads 
But the biggest shock from it all?
  • The average chance of rolling a common crew is higher than an uncommon crew 
What do you mean? 

Well, if you take the number of times that you can roll a uncommon crew and divide it by the number of total crew rolls, and then compare to the number of common crews over total crews; you'll find that some common crews are easier to get than uncommon crews. Which crews? 

You have a higher chance of rolling a Gearheads crew (4.98%) than you do 
  • Dragonslayers (4.35%)
  • Fearless Blitzers (4.28%)
  • Junkyard Dogs (3.39%)
  • Lucky Bastards (3.94%)
  • Midnight Marauders (3.8%)
  • Molotov Maidens (4.7%)
  • Motorheads (4.15%)
  • Salty Dogs (4.42%) 
  • Sea Serpents (4.7%)
  • Silent Hunters (4.35%)
  • Steelheads (4.01%)
  • Wolfpack (4.63%) 
Holy shit that's a lot of crews. Gearheads isn't the most common crew either, its Lucky Bastards at 5.6%, more than any uncommon crew. Which, isn't right at all. 

The chance of any given crew rolled being uncommon is 61%, and common is 37%; but you are more likely to roll common Lucky Bastards than you are any given uncommon crew! 

What can be done to fix this? 

Well, two things

  1.  Introduce a cap to where once a set number of the same crew is rolled, its taken out of the system for that session. Example? If you roll a Lucky Bastards crew 20 times in a single session, the chance of rolling another Lucky Bastard is 0%. This seems way too much in the player favor, but when you look back at the data; for every 361.75 rolls I only rolled a single crew 20 times, with 8 other crews being 5 rolls or closer. What would happen to the lost 5.6% of the LB crew? Give it to another crew, at random. What does it accomplish? It allows for rarer crews to come out of their shell, and have a higher player satisfaction at rolling crews. How often do you go on the forums are see people complaining about BB crews being gone?
  2. Move more crews to common, but keep the tier percentage the same. Meaning with an average 37% to roll a common crew for the different 8 crews, giving 4.63% per crew is higher than the 61% for the 14 uncommon crews at 4.36%. By adding more common crews, but keeping the tier percentage the same at 37%, you would increase the number of uncommon crews rolled overall. What crews could you add to common? Dead-eye Destroyers, Radar Runners, and Dragonslayers. What would this do? Well, 37% over 11 crews is 3.36% per crew, while 61% for 13 crews is 4.69%. A difference of 1.33%! 
Either way, both changes would need a redo in the crew system. Maybe we need another change in the system. Keep the rarities as they are, just fix the roll chances or move some crews around.

I'm going to continue this for another month or two. Just depends when I get a chance to sit down and roll for an hour or two.

As always Film at 11